FEC bulk itcont for McGovern, Neal, Warren, and Markey shows majority ActBlue routing on itemized individuals, zero WinRed, and House members closer to a 60/40 ActBlue–direct split—public conduit patterns, not findings of misconduct.
After loading FEC bulk individual files (`indiv24` / `indiv26`) into the Follow the Money kit, query J compares ActBlue, WinRed, and direct itemized receipts for the four federal committees. Patterns describe fundraising utilities, not wrongdoing. WinRed is a Republican-leaning conduit; $0 WinRed for these Democrats is expected.
District note
- Jim McGovern = U.S. House MA-02 (includes Northampton).
- Richard Neal = U.S. House MA-01 (comparison only; not Northampton).
How the split is measured
Earmarks for these committees use `TRANSACTION_TP=15E` and `MEMO_TEXT` like “EARMARKED CONTRIBUTION: SEE BELOW,” with the platform in `OTHER_ID` (ActBlue = C00401224, WinRed = C00694323)—not the older “EARMARKED THROUGH ACTBLUE” memo string. Book SQL that only greps MEMO_TEXT for ACTBLUE will wrongly report 100% Direct.
Loaded rows in `fec_indiv`: 127,380 (2024) + 53,173 (2026) = 180,553.
ActBlue share of itemized individual dollars
| Official | Cycle | ActBlue % of $ | ActBlue $ | Direct* % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| McGovern (MA-02) | 2024 | 58.1% | $334,679 | 41.9% |
| McGovern (MA-02) | 2026 | 63.9% | $290,913 | 36.1% |
| Neal (MA-01) | 2024 | 59.9% | $449,200 | 40.1% |
| Neal (MA-01) | 2026 | 62.6% | $364,450 | 37.4% |
| Warren | 2024 | 80.1% | $3,279,676 | 19.9% |
| Warren | 2026 | 95.1% | $1,321,550 | 4.9% |
| Markey | 2024 | 72.6% | $558,029 | 27.4% |
| Markey | 2026 | 61.0% | $1,002,476 | 39.0% |
Direct* includes small non-ActBlue conduits. WinRed = $0 in every cell.
Predicted ActBlue share (2027–2032)
Label: model extrapolation from 2024–2026 itemized conduit shares. Not certainty and not causal — a transparent linear extension of observed ActBlue % of itemized dollars from cycle 2024 → 2026 (`share_t = share_2026 + ((share_2026 − share_2024) / 2) × (t − 2026)`), clamped to [0%, 100%]. Horizon: 2027 through 2032 (same year span the 50-state money kit should use when that kit runs).
| Official | 2024 | 2026 | ’27 | ’28 | ’29 | ’30 | ’31 | ’32 | Slope/yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| McGovern (MA-02) | 58.1% | 63.9% | 66.8% | 69.7% | 72.6% | 75.5% | 78.4% | 81.3% | +2.90 pp |
| Neal (MA-01) | 59.9% | 62.6% | 64.0% | 65.3% | 66.7% | 68.0% | 69.4% | 70.7% | +1.35 pp |
| Warren | 80.1% | 95.1% | 100%* | 100%* | 100%* | 100%* | 100%* | 100%* | +7.50 pp |
| Markey | 72.6% | 61.0% | 55.2% | 49.4% | 43.6% | 37.8% | 32.0% | 26.2% | −5.80 pp |
*Warren’s raw linear path would exceed 100%; clamped. Chart: `media/ftm/query_j_actblue_share_forecast.png`.
Teleprompt angles
- Lead with McGovern ~60% ActBlue for the Northampton House race; Neal is similar on ActBlue share despite a PAC-heavier overall war chest (weball).
- Warren is the most ActBlue-routed on itemized dollars (80% → 95%); the simple model hits the 100% clamp for every forecast year through 2032.
- Markey’s ActBlue dollar volume rose into 2026 while the ActBlue share of dollars fell—say both numbers; continued linear trend points toward roughly a quarter of itemized $ by 2032 (dollars can still rise).
- Close: “Public FEC files show how itemized gifts were routed. They do not, by themselves, prove improper influence. Forecast columns are model extrapolation, not a prediction of certainty.”
Source paths: kit `out/query_j_3way.txt`, `out/query_j_actblue_winred.csv`, `out/query_j_actblue_share_with_forecast.csv`, docs `actblue-winred-split.md`.