Working class respondents feel significantly closer to opinion-based groups when they believe the working class is the majority within those groups, whether pro- or anti-immigration and pro- or anti-environment.
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1. Perceived class positions and opinion-based polarisation: experimental evidence from the UK
Working class respondents feel significantly closer to opinion-based groups when they believe the working class is the majority within those groups, whether pro- or anti-immigration and pro- or anti-environment.
This article argues that perceptions of how the working class positions itself on divisive political issues, specifically immigration and the environment, fuel polarisation between opinion-based groups and self-identified social classes.
Using a vignette survey experiment in the UK, we leverage the base-rate fallacy to manipulate respondents’ perceptions of the working class stance on these issues.
Working class respondents feel significantly closer to opinion-based group
2. Does reflection increase accuracy rather than bias in the ...
The base rate fallacy is a cognitive bias in which individuals ignore general statistical information (base rates) and instead focus on specific information when assessing the probability of an event, leading to erroneous conclusions.
The literature emphasizes two theoretical frameworks to explain the psychological mechanisms underlying belief in political fake news: motivated vs. reflective reasoning.
The motivated reasoning account asserts that individuals are predisposed to accept fake news aligned with their political identity, with reflection further entrenching such beliefs through an identity-protective function.
...
In light of these shortcomings, we conducted a high-powe
3. Human detection of political speech deepfakes across transcripts ...
We find the high base rate of fakes compared to the low base rate leads participants to a 7.2 percentage point higher accuracy on real stimuli and a 5.8 percentage point lower accuracy on fabricated stimuli, which are both statistically significant.
Human detection of political speech deepfakes across transcripts, audio, and video
Table 1.
In Experiment 3, we examine how the base rate of fabrications influences participant accuracy by randomizing participants to a low or high base rate of fabricated political speeches.
We present participants with 20 political speeches sampled from 32 political speeches by Donald Trump and Joseph Biden that are randomized to appear as a
4. Contingency inferences from base rates: A parsimonious strategy?
Recent research by Vogel et al.
(2022) demonstrated that people infer up to four conditional contingencies from contexts with skewed base rates.
The pseudocontingency framework provides a parsimonious strategy for inferring the contingency between two variables by assessing the base rates.
Frequently occurring levels are associated, as are rarely occurring levels.
However, this strategy can lead to different contingency inferences in different contexts, depending on how the base rates vary across contexts.
Here, we examine how base-rate consistency influences base-rate learning and reliance by contrasting consistent with inconsistent base rates.
We hypothesized that base-rate lea
5. [PDF] It depends_ Partisan evaluation of conditional probability importance
We suggest that people engage in partisan evaluation of conditional probabilities, judging hit rates as more important when they support politically prescribed restrictive policies.
conditional probability of Muslim immigrants being terrorists is extremely low.
Yet the inverse conditional probability is more relevant to evaluating restrictive policies such as the threat of terrorism if Muslim im- migration were restricted.
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Another study examines US participants’ evaluation of two policies: restricting Muslim
6. [PDF] The Psychology of Partisan Stereotyping - Heterodox Academy
RH, people ignore information about base rates and rely simply on their perceptions of how distinctive the traits are of party identities.
Doug Ahler, Gaurav Sood July 16, 2020
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Among the most perverse sources of hostility is stereotyping: Americans misperceive their political opponents, believing parties are composed of stereotypical cutouts.
For example, Democrats believe that 50% of Republicans support white nationalism—just 9% do— and Republicans believe that only 70% of Democrats say they love America—96% do.
Republicans, for instance, believe that 39% of
Democrats are black—the actual number in 2015 was 24%—and that 38% are gay, lesbian, or bisexual (vs. 7% in reality).